Global Admissions Shuffle Impacts Domestic Applicants

In the last few months, there has been increased pressure on colleges, especially highly selective ones. Federal funding, student visas, endowments, and colleges’ tax exempt statuses have been revoked or put at risk.

There have been changes and reversals every day. Last week, Trump blocked Harvard’s ability to issue international student visas. Then hours later, a federal judge temporarily blocked the ban while the issue plays out in court.

This is a lot of uncertainty for both colleges and students to navigate!

You may be wondering - how does this impact my chances of admission???

From the college’s perspective, losing international students means losing additional funding in addition to lost federal grants. International students are more likely to be full-pay, even at the handful of colleges that are need-blind for international students. So, colleges are incentivized to find a way to get those international students to campus in the fall. Even more, colleges’ reputations are at risk. Not supporting already admitted international students is likely to reduce their future international applications.

From the student’s perspective, I have seen international students just as committed to study in the US in the fall. An international student I worked with told me in April, “I have already enrolled at Harvard and refused the offer from Princeton and Yale. I TRULY hope that everything is gonna be alright, I saw that Harvard stood against all of this, and I rely on them. We must hope for the best.”

Just hours before Harvard’s ability to issue student visas was revoked, the student sent me excited pictures of him wearing a Harvard sweatshirt on campus for admitted students day. Still, he shared, “I think that Harvard is going to do its best. I trust them. I see on the news that they are handling it well.”

Another Harvard-bound student I worked with this year shared this, “I think Harvard is often viewed as the symbol of American higher education, which is why it’s at the forefront of a lot of this current tension. And I think it did a good job of standing by the values of the institution. It does suck to have these funding drains happen just before I attend, but I don’t think it’ll dramatically impact my experience or the prestige of a Harvard degree.”

I’ve seen this sentiment shared in many places - students are still excited to study at selective US institutions, and Harvard is more popular than ever. 

However, the responses have been very school specific. One Columbia University alumna and mom shared with me that many of her classmates are discouraging their children from going to Columbia because of how the school has handled both the protests on campus and the demands from the current administration.

What will this year look like?

So much of what is happening right now with students and admissions officers is a waiting game. Will there be large gaps in college classes left by international students without visas? The students want to attend! The question is - can they?

If international students start withdrawing over the summer because of uncertainty or because it seems unlikely that those students will be able to obtain visas, colleges will admit students from the waitlist to minimize the loss of tuition dollars. They will likely focus on domestic students who are not reliant on visas. 

This year, already more students I’ve worked with have already been accepted off waitlists at selective colleges at higher rates than in previous years. But right now, acceptances from waitlists are still a trickle compared to what could be coming, depending on how policy and court cases shape up in the next few months. International students make up between about 10 and 20 percent of undergraduates at many selective schools.

What about future demand?

This year’s international students who are already accepted still seem excited to study in the US. After all, most of these changes happened after acceptances went out and continued after students committed to colleges by May 1st. They had already gone through the long process of applying, gotten excited for their choices, and turned down other offers. 

For the next year or two, however, students and colleges may be less willing to take on this uncertainty. I predict that international applications will decline, especially from specific countries that are likely to have a harder time getting their visas approved. For example, the administration says it will “aggressively” revoke Chinese student visas. And colleges, looking for a more predictable enrollment, may increase the proportion of domestic students.

What does this mean for you??

• There’s still a good chance of significant acceptances from waitlists all summer as schools get a better sense of what will happen with enrollments and visas for this fall.
• A decrease in international applications and/or a decrease in the percentage of international acceptances by colleges could increase domestic acceptance rates. This will be very college specific. 
• A shift to accept more domestic students at schools admitting only a few percent of applicants still means that schools will remain highly selective. You still need a stand out strategy and a stand out narrative. Read more about GPA, test scores, and your narrative in college admissions in my previous articles.
• In the long run, an amazing education and your degree will hold its value. 

Stay tuned for more updates on how admissions will be impacted this year.

🎉🎉🎉 With college admissions, one size does not fit all. If it did, everyone would look the same and no one would stand out! So, if you are looking for personalized guidance in finding your voice and your unique narrative, schedule a free introductory call to see how I can help!